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Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands
Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Germany; Department Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Department of Geography,Canterbury University, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Högskolan i Gävle, Akademin för teknik och miljö, Avdelningen för bygg- energi- och miljöteknik, Miljöteknik. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-2637-2024
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2017 (Engelska)Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 114, nr 34, s. 8939-8944Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world's cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8-2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3-4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2017. Vol. 114, nr 34, s. 8939-8944
Nyckelord [en]
urbanization, global land use change, livelihoods, agricultural productivity, megaurban regions
Nationell ämneskategori
Social och ekonomisk geografi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-23265DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1606036114ISI: 000408095300033PubMedID: 28028219Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85027526520OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-23265DiVA, id: diva2:1063583
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Forskningsrådet FormasTillgänglig från: 2017-01-10 Skapad: 2017-01-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-10-10Bibliografiskt granskad

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