hig.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • sv-SE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • de-DE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
The statistical evidence missing from the Swedish decision-making of COVID-19 strategy during the early period: A longitudinal observational analysis
University of Gävle, Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development, Department of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Science, Mathematics.
Department of Statistics, Uppsala University, Sweden.
Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0410-8513
2022 (English)In: SSM - Population Health, ISSN 2352-8273, Vol. 18, article id 101083Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A controversy about the Swedish strategy of dealing with COVID-19 during the early period is how decision-making was based on evidence, which refers to data and data analysis. During the earliest period of the pandemic, the Swedish decision-making was based on subjective perspective. However, when more data became available, the decision-making stood on mathematical and descriptive analyses. The mathematical analysis aimed to model the condition for herd immunity while the descriptive analysis compared different measures without adjustment of population differences and updating pandemic situations. Due to the dubious interpretations of these analyses, a mild measure was adopted in Sweden upon the arrival of the second wave, leading to a surge of poor public health outcomes compared to the other Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, and Finland). In this article, using data available during the first wave, we conduct longitudinal analysis to investigate the consequence of the shred of evidence in the Swedish decision-making for the first wave, where the study period is between January 2020 and August 2020. The design is longitudinal observational study. The linear regressions based on the Poisson distribution and the binomial distribution are employed for the analysis. We found that the early Swedish measure had a long-term and significant effect on general mortality and COVID-19 mortality and a certain mitigating effect on unemployment in Sweden during the first wave; here, the effect was measured by an increase of general deaths, COVID-19 deaths or unemployed persons under Swedish measure relative to the measures adopted by the other Nordic countries. These pieces of statistical evidence were not studied in the mathematical and descriptive analyses but could play an important role in the decision-making at the second wave. In conclusion, a timely longitudinal analysis should be part of the decision-making process for containing the current pandemic or a future one.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier , 2022. Vol. 18, article id 101083
Keywords [en]
COVID-19, Decision-making, Longitudinal analysis, Statistical evidence, Swedish strategy
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-38395DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101083ISI: 000791698900001PubMedID: 35386859Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85127553829OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-38395DiVA, id: diva2:1651070
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2017-01175Swedish Research Council, 2019-02913Available from: 2022-04-11 Created: 2022-04-11 Last updated: 2022-05-19Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(466 kB)75 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 466 kBChecksum SHA-512
9ea41fcc95d09d224ba803167bcdeaa2eac4152b54eb3f6d74deed86198c79ad1ac66f19fa98e778d0a00703ef1ad63093241b5fb26061cf14d2d0e76cdd4788
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMedScopus

Authority records

Wang, Xiaoqin

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Wang, XiaoqinYin, Li
By organisation
Mathematics
In the same journal
SSM - Population Health
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 75 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 203 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • sv-SE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • de-DE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf