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Dynamics of COVID-19 progression and the long-term influences of measures on pandemic outcomes
Suntar Research Institute, Singapore, Singapore.
Karolinska institutet.
University of Gävle, Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development, Department of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Science, Mathematics.
2022 (English)In: Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, E-ISSN 1742-7622, Vol. 19, article id 10Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The pandemic progression is a dynamic process, in which measures yield outcomes, and outcomes in turn influence subsequent measures and outcomes. Due to the dynamics of pandemic progression, it is challenging to analyse the long-term influence of an individual measure in the sequence on pandemic outcomes. To demonstrate the problem and find solutions, in this article, we study the first wave of the pandemic—probably the most dynamic period—in the Nordic countries and analyse the influences of the Swedish measures relative to the measures adopted by its neighbouring countries on COVID-19 mortality, general mortality, COVID-19 incidence, and unemployment. The design is a longitudinal observational study. The linear regressions based on the Poisson distribution or the binomial distribution are employed for the analysis. To show that analysis can be timely conducted, we use table data available during the first wave. We found that the early Swedish measure had a long-term and significant causal effect on public health outcomes and a certain degree of long-term mitigating causal effect on unemployment during the first wave, where the effect was measured by an increase of these outcomes under the Swedish measures relative to the measures adopted by the other Nordic countries. This information from the first wave has not been provided by available analyses but could have played an important role in combating the second wave. In conclusion, analysis based on table data may provide timely information about the dynamic progression of a pandemic and the long-term influence of an individual measure in the sequence on pandemic outcomes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
BMC , 2022. Vol. 19, article id 10
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-40641DOI: 10.1186/s12982-022-00119-6ISI: 000901527600001PubMedID: 36550573Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85144894966OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-40641DiVA, id: diva2:1722502
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2019-02913University of GävleAvailable from: 2022-12-29 Created: 2022-12-29 Last updated: 2023-10-17Bibliographically approved

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Wang, Xiaoqin

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CiteExportLink to record
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