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Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents
University of Gävle, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Ämnesavdelningen för företagsekonomi.
2004 (English)In: Real estate economics (Print), ISSN 1080-8620, E-ISSN 1540-6229, Vol. 32, no 2, 183-215 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998-2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality constant (i.e., control for characteristics), but should also be maturity constant.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2004. Vol. 32, no 2, 183-215 p.
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-1302DOI: 10.1111/j.1080-8620.2004.00089.xISI: 000221701100002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-1302DiVA: diva2:117964
Available from: 2008-08-27 Created: 2008-08-27 Last updated: 2012-02-07Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
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