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Some second order effects on interval based probabilities
University of Gävle, Department of Mathematics, Natural and Computer Sciences, Ämnesavdelningen för matematik och statistik. (matematik)
2006 (English)In: Proceedings of the Nineteenth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, Menlo Park, CA: AAAI Press , 2006, 848-853 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In real-life decision analysis, the probabilities and values of consequences are in general vague and imprecise. One way to model imprecise probabilities is to represent a probability with the interval between the lowest possible and the highest possible probability, respectively. However, there are disadvantages with this approach, one being that when an event has several possible outcomes, the distributions of belief in the different probabilities

are heavily concentrated to their centers of mass, meaning that much of the information of the original intervals are lost. Representing an imprecise probability with the distribution’s center of mass therefore in practice gives much the same result as using an interval, but a single number instead of an interval is computationally easier and avoids problems such as overlapping intervals. Using this, we demonstrate why second-order

calculations can add information when handling imprecise representations, as is the case of decision trees or probabilistic networks. We suggest a measure of belief density for such intervals. We also demonstrate important properties when operating on general distributions. The results herein apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order distributions, instead

using only first-order concepts such as upper and lower bounds.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Menlo Park, CA: AAAI Press , 2006. 848-853 p.
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-2455ISBN: 978-1-57735-261-7 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-2455DiVA: diva2:119117
Conference
19th International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference 2006 (FLAIRS-2006), Melbourne, FL, USA, May 11-13 2006
Available from: 2007-04-30 Created: 2007-04-30 Last updated: 2010-12-10Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • sv-SE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • de-DE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf