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Prediction of Controversies and Estimation of ESG Performance: An Experimental Investigation Using Machine Learning
University of Gävle, Faculty of Education and Business Studies, Department of Business and Economic Studies, Business administration. Centre for research on Economic Relations (CER), Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4436-5920
Department of Electrical Engineering, Linköping University, Sweden; Centre for research on Economic Relations (CER), Sweden.
Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden.
Mid Sweden University, Sundsvall, Sweden; Centre for research on Economic Relations (CER), Sweden.
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2023 (English)In: Handbook of Big Data and Analytics in Accounting and Auditing, Springer , 2023, p. 65-87Chapter in book (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

We develop a new methodology for computing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings using a mode of artificial intelligence (AI) called machine learning (ML) to make ESG more transparent. The ML algorithms anchor our rating methodology in controversies related to non-compliance with corporate social responsibility (CSR). This methodology is consistent with the information needs of institutional investors and is the first ESG methodology with predictive validity. Our best model predicts what companies are likely to experience controversies. It has a precision of 70–84 per cent and high predictive performance on several measures. It also provides evidence of what indicators contribute the most to the predicted likelihood of experiencing an ESG controversy. Furthermore, while the common approach of rating companies is to aggregate indicators using the arithmetic average, which is a simple explanatory model designed to describe an average company, the proposed rating methodology uses state-of-the-art AI technology to aggregate ESG indicators into holistic ratings for the predictive modelling of individual company performance. Predictive modelling using ML enables our models to aggregate the information contained in ESG indicators with far less information loss than with the predominant aggregation method.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer , 2023. p. 65-87
Keywords [en]
Artificial Intelligence; Controversies; Corporate Social Performance; ESG; Machine Learning; Socially Responsible Investment
National Category
Computer Sciences Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-42081DOI: 10.1007/978-981-19-4460-4_4ISI: 001145393700006Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85160734598ISBN: 9789811944604 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-42081DiVA, id: diva2:1765743
Available from: 2023-06-12 Created: 2023-06-12 Last updated: 2024-02-09Bibliographically approved

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Svanberg, Jan

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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