GIS-based MCDA for Integrated Risk Assessment and Prioritization of High-Risk Areas in the Göta River Valley
2024 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
Climate change will bring more precipitation in Northern Europe and Sweden. Increasing precipitation will cause more floods, which will increase landslide risks. In the Göta river valley there are high landslide risks due to the thick layer of clay and quick clay present there. The river valley has been the home of numerous industries for a long time, which unfortunately have left large areas with contaminated soils along the river. The Göta river is the only outlet for Sweden's largest lake, called Lake Vänern. With increasing precipitation, the water level of the lake will rise. This will lead to a larger tapping of the lake, to not cause floods around the lake. A larger tapping will lead to higher flood and landslide risks in the river valley and thus increasing the risk for contaminated soils entering the river.
This study seeks to provide a comparison of two analyses where flood risk classes and height above water level, functioning as flood uncertainties, as well as contaminated soil criteria are used in one of the analyses but not the other, to see if there is a difference. The study also seeks to show where along the river there are high risk areas in need for climate adaptation measures to reduce risks.
The method used was a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, to include several criteria in the analysis, pairwise compare the criteria, and calculate their relative weights. The method was utilized with Geographic Information System software and AHP software. The robustness of the analyses were controlled by performing a One-Factor-at-a-Time sensitivity analysis.
The result of this study was the findings of four areas with high risk values along the Göta river. Three of those areas were found in both performed MCDA's. The fourth area was only found in the second MCDA where the three additional criteria were included in the analysis.
The conclusion of this study is that the areas with the highest risks in relation to flood, landslide, and contamination risks are located in the localities of Lilla Edet, Älvängen,Sure, Göta, and in the city of Gothenburg. Also, there is a difference in the results when including the three additional factors, another area is highlighted as having high risks. The method used in this study makes it clear that the usage of five or eight criteria can produce results that are similar to each other. However, by using eight criteria instead of five and thus including additional risks that are connected with each other, there is an impact on the result, which becomes more precise.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. , p. viii+62+Appendixes
Keywords [en]
Climate adaptation, Landslide, Flood, Contaminated areas, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), One-Factor-at-a-Time (OAT).
National Category
Engineering and Technology Environmental Engineering Computer and Information Sciences Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-44788OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-44788DiVA, id: diva2:1873574
Subject / course
Geomatics
Educational program
Geomatics – master’s programme (one year) (swe or eng)
Presentation
2024-06-10, Online presentation, 10:00 (English)
Supervisors
Examiners
2024-06-222024-06-192025-01-31Bibliographically approved