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  • 1.
    Englund, Peter
    et al.
    Department of Finance, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden; Finance Group, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
    Gunnelin, Åke
    Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm Sweden.
    Hendershott, Patric H.
    Centre for Property Research, University of Aberdeen Business School, Aberdeen, Scotland; San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA .
    Söderberg, Bo
    University of Gävle, Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    Adjustment in Property Space Markets: Taking Long-term Leases and Transaction Costs Seriously2008In: Real estate economics (Print), ISSN 1080-8620, E-ISSN 1540-6229, Vol. 36, no 1, p. 81-109Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Markets for property space adjust only gradually because tenants and landlords are constrained by long-term leases and transaction and information costs. Not only do rents adjust slowly, but space occupancy, which depends on historical rents, often differs from demand at current rent. This creates "hidden vacancies," vacancies that will develop in the future if market rent and the space demand driver are unchanged. That is, if current rent is greater/lesser than average rent, then hidden vacancies are positive/negative. Moreover, because of hidden vacancies, open vacancies and rent are not mirror images of each other. Thus it is necessary to estimate both rental and vacancy rate adjustment processes. We do this using annual data for Stockholm offices during the 1977-2002 period and simulate the response of rent and vacancies (open and hidden) to an employment shock.

  • 2. Englund, Peter
    et al.
    Gunnelin, Åke
    Hoesli, Martin
    Söderberg, Bo
    University of Gävle, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Ämnesavdelningen för företagsekonomi.
    Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents2004In: Real estate economics (Print), ISSN 1080-8620, E-ISSN 1540-6229, Vol. 32, no 2, p. 183-215Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998-2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality constant (i.e., control for characteristics), but should also be maturity constant.

  • 3. Gunnelin, Åke
    et al.
    Hendershott, Patric
    Hoesli, Martin
    Söderberg, Bo
    University of Gävle, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Ämnesavdelningen för företagsekonomi.
    Determinants of Cross-Sectional Variation in Discount Rates, Growth Rates, and Exit Cap Rates2004In: Real estate economics (Print), ISSN 1080-8620, E-ISSN 1540-6229, Vol. 32, no 2, p. 217-237Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study investigates the determinants of key input variables in valuers' discounted cash flow models used for estimating market values for offices. Data from 599 valuations in 2000 from Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo are used to explain variation in discount rates, expected growth rates in net operating income and exit cap rates. Our ability to explain the relatively wide variation in appraisal assumptions with plausible covariates generates confidence in the appraisal process. This has important implications because most value and returns indices of commercial real estate worldwide are appraisal based.

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