Globally, wind power is growing fast and in Sweden alone more than 3000 turbines have been installed since the mid-1990s. Although the number of decommissioned turbines so far is few, the high installation rate suggests that a similarly high decommissioning rate can be expected at some point in the future. If the waste material from these turbines is not handled sustainably the whole concept of wind power as a clean energy alternative is challenged. This study presents a generally applicable method and quantification based on statistics of the waste amounts from wind turbines in Sweden. The expected annual mean growth is 12% until 2026, followed by a mean increase of 41% until 2034. By then, annual waste amounts are estimated to 240,000 tonnes steel and iron (16% of currently recycled materials), 2300 tonnes aluminium (4%), 3300 tonnes copper (5%), 340 tonnes electronics (<1%) and 28,000 tonnes blade materials (barely recycled today). Three studied scenarios suggest that a well-functioning market for re-use may postpone the effects of these waste amounts until improved recycling systems are in place.

Geographical proximity exerts a substantial influence on structural evolution, developmental trajectory, and pace of sociotechnical system growth. This study explores this aspect within the context of the development of forest biomass-based biofuel technology, employing a Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework with the lens of geographical proximity utilization of system components. The research employed a combination of document analysis and interviews with key system stakeholders as data collection methods. The analysis reveals that the close geographical proximity of the system components and technologies, encompassing both technical aspects and sectors, did not result in synergetic effects, in contrast to prior TIS research findings. Rather than fostering collaboration, it has engendered a competitive dynamic, partially driven by actors vying for knowledge leads and funding from both regional and national agencies. Consequently, the potential benefits of geographical proximity of system components remain largely untapped. In light of these results, this study offers practical recommendations for exploiting untapped opportunities, advocating for more strategic use of geographical proximity to foster system technology development and enhance its role in national TIS development. This case study enriches sustainability transition literature by providing valuable insights into the role of geographical proximity in innovation processes.

One of the biggest challenges of our time is the climate crisis. If we humans are unable to cope with the climate crisis, we risk to not fulfilling many of the 17 global sustainability goals. The climate crisis is a consequence of carbon dioxide emissions, which are largely due to the combustion of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels globally account for over 60 % of the fuel supply for electricity. In Sweden, the domestic electricity supply is almost fossil-free, but electricity is both exported and imported that marginally affects the use of fossil fuels. A change of energy supply in the industry and transport sectors points to an increasing need for electricity in the future. In order for Sweden to meet its climate commitments and achieve the goal of having no territorial emissions of carbon dioxide by 2045, more renewable electricity needs to be supplied. Wind power is one of the types of power needed in the transition to a fossil-free society. To build wind power on a large scale, an environ-mental assessment is required according to the Environmental Code. The permit application to the environmental court describes the impact on the local environment through an environmental impact assessment (miljökonsekvensbeskrivning) with associated investigations. However, offshore wind power must also be examined as a water activity, in which case the societal benefits must also be described.The purpose of this report has been to make a general compilation of existing knowledge about offshore wind power with regard to the societal benefits it constitutes or may constitute from a local, regional and national perspective. The report is based on a literature study based on scientific papers as well as reports, statistics and other facts from authorities and industry organisations. The results are reported in five different areas: energy systems; energy and environmental assessment; business; public activities and civil society. Svea Vind Offshore's offshore wind power projects Utposten 1, Utposten 2 and Greta's klackar 2 have been mentioned as examples. They can generate almost 5 TWh of electricity, which corresponds to the target for 2030 in the County Administrative Board's Gävleborg's energy and climate strategy. For comparison, electricity supply in the county was 4,617 GWh and electricity use 5,034 GWh in 2017 according to the same source.The study shows that more electricity supply capacity is needed and electricity supply from offshore wind power largely follows the need for electricity. Offshore wind power can assist in meeting the power demand and can also be part of a hydrogen expansion. The energy payback period for wind power is about 1 year (comparable to solar cells) and has a lower total environmental impact than the alternatives (comparable to hydropower).Green energy and power from offshore wind power can attract business start-ups. Reef effects and a ban on bottom trawling at an offshore wind farm are positive for the fishing environment. Offshore wind power can contribute to a stronger hospitality industry and related business and can provide both direct and indirect increase in jobs. Annual income arises at local, regional and national level during design, construction, operation and maintenance of wind farms. Establishment of wind power contributes to technical learning and often leads to improved infrastructure. Anchoring, dialogue and distribution of income from offshore wind power can lead to a positive development in the ci-rest society.

Kursen ”Miljö- och resursanalys för hållbar utveckling V2”, som är en av de obli-gatoriska kurserna under andra året i civilingenjörsutbildningen (Väg och Vat-ten) vid Chalmers tekniska högskola har omfattats av ett pedagogiskt utveck-lingsarbete. Utgångspunkten till de förändringar som prövats har varit grundade i och inspirerade av Experiential Learning Theory1. Lärarlaget utvecklade, med stöd av en gemensamt producerad begreppsmodell, metoder för att intervenera på olika stadier, och på olika sätt, i studenternas lärprocess. Arbetet har handlat om att skapa goda förutsättningar för att förstärka studenternas lärande. Ett så-dant lärande innebär att studenterna tillägnar sig en ökad förståelse och fördju-pade kunskaper, genom att koppla samman färdigheter som reflektion och kommunikation med tillägnandet av ett relativt abstrakt stoff (miljö- och resurs-analys). Detta har skett med hjälp av att modifiera kursens organisation och struktur, genom att utveckla återkommande och varierande typer av reflektions-övningar samt genom att arbeta fram återkommande och varierande former för olika typer av återkoppling till studenterna. En viktig del av arbetet har också va-rit att försöka utvärdera utfallet av de förändringar som genomförts i kursen. Ut-ifrån de begränsningar som det empiriska materialet innebär är det inte helt klart om titelns fråga besvarats i undersökningen, men studenternas resultat liksom deras utvärdering av kursen pekar tydligt på positiva effekter ifråga om lärandet.

This paper focuses on the need for a widened definition of the notion of technology within the smart city discourse, with a particular focus on the “built environment”. The first part of the paper describes how current tendencies in urban design and architecture are inclined to prioritize high tech-solutions at the expense of low-tech functionalities and omits that information and communication technology (ICT) contrasts the art of building cities as an adaptable and habitually smart technology in itself. It continues with an elaboration on the need for expanding the limits of system boundaries for a better understanding of the energy and material telecouplings that are linked to ICT solutions and account for some perils inherent in smart technologies, such as rebound effects and the difficulty of measuring the environmental impacts of ICT solutions on a city level. The second part of the paper highlights how low-tech technologies and nature-based solutions can make cities smarter, representing a new technology portfolio in national and international policies for safeguarding biodiversity and the delivery of a range of ecosystem services, promoting the necessary climate-change adaption that cities need to prioritize to confer resilience.

The food supply chain is responsible for a large share of the anthropogenic contribution to global warming, as well as being a major contributor to several other impact categories such as acidification and eutrophication. Therefore, it is necessary to find ways of limiting the impact from food production and the food supply chain. Many crops are not adapted to growing in regions with cold climate, which creates the need to either import them or to use production methods such as greenhouses to artificially create good conditions for the crops. Sweden is currently reliant on imports for many different crops, including tomatoes where most of the consumption is covered by import from the Netherlands. This study uses life cycle assessment to analyze the potential environmental impact of Swedish tomato consumption, by comparing several year-round domestic production scenarios with scenarios representing import from the Netherlands. This is done by using a greenhouse simulation software to simulate a theoretical greenhouse placed in both countries, and then using the simulation results in combination with data from the database EcoInvent to perform a life cycle assessment. The results showed that Swedish domestic production has the potential to decrease the environmental impact of tomatoes consumed in Sweden, when compared to import from the Netherlands. There were a couple of combinations of production scenarios and impact categories where the Dutch production performed better, but the Swedish production scenarios performed better in general. The results also clearly showed that scenarios using LED lighting systems consistently had a lower impact than similar production scenarios using high-pressure sodium lighting systems. The choice of energy sources was identified as a crucial factor when it comes to the environmental impact of the studied systems.

Agricultural production and further processing to food and drink have large impacts on the environment. However, there are still few examples of LCA studies on beverages such as whisky. This paper presents a life cycle assessment of Swedish single malt whisky and different environmental improvements of the production chain are discussed. The functional unit is one bottle (70cl) of whisky and results are obtained for global warming potential (GWP), Acidification Potential (AP), Eutrophication potential (EP) and primary energy (PE). The contribution to GWP is dominated by CO<inf>2</inf> emissions from transport of stillage. When avoided emissions from use of biogas are included, the net result is 2.1tonnes CO<inf>2</inf>-eq. Acidification is mainly due to emissions of SO<inf>2</inf> from bottle production, transport and barley cultivation which ends up to 14.6kgSO<inf>2</inf>-eq. Eutrophication results are totally dominated by barley cultivation, in total 8.6kgPO43-The total use of primary energy is 53.5MJ/FU with a 50/50 distribution in renewable and non-renewable. Non-renewables emanate from fossil fuels used for transports and in glass production, whereas renewables are mostly used for heating in the distillery. Improvement analysis of transports included; (1) decreasing need of transport, (2) change of fuel and (3) change of transport mode. Decreasing transport of stillage is an efficient measure to reduce GWP and use of non-renewable energy. Substituting diesel with biodiesel for all road transports is an even more efficient measure for these categories, but increases other environmental impact. For all impact categories except use of renewable energy a scenario combining all improvements is the most efficient measure to reduce environmental impact. The results can be used by the manufacturer, but an improved and expanded LCA on product level can be used for a more specific eco-labelling of the different whisky editions. 

Keeping horses causes environmental impacts through the whole chain from feed production to manure. According to national statistics, the number of horses in Sweden is currently 360,000 and is continuing to increase. This result in increasing amounts of horse manure that has to be managed and treated, which is currently done using practices that cause local, regional, and global environmental impacts. However, horse manure and its content of nutrients and organic material could be a useful fertiliser for arable land and a substrate for renewable energy production as biogas. The aim of the paper is to identify and describe potentially critical factors in horse keeping determining the amount (total mass) and characteristics (nutrient content and biodegradability) of horse manure, and thus the potential for anaerobic digestion. A systematic combining approach is used as a structural framework for reviewed relevant literature. All factors identified are expressed as discrete choices available to the horse keeper. In all, 12 different factors were identified: type and amount of feed, type and amount of bedding, mucking out regime, residence time outdoors, storage type and residence time of manure in storage, spreading and soil conditions, and transport distance and type of vehicle fuel used. Managing horses in terms of these factors is of vital importance in reducing the direct environmental impacts from horse keeping and in making horse manure attractive as a substrate for anaerobic digestion. The results are also relevant to environmental systems analysis, where numerical calculations are employed and different biogas system set-ups are compared to current and other treatments. In such assessments, the relevance and importance of the critical factors identified here and corresponding conditions can be examined and the most promising system set-up can be devised.

A transition to renewable energy sources and a circular economy has increased interest in renewable resources not usually considered as energy sources or plant nutrient resources. Horse manure exemplifies this, as it is sometimes recycled but not often used for energy purposes. The purpose of this study was to explore horse manure management in a Swedish municipality and prospects for energy recovery. The case study includes a survey of horse manure practices, environmental assessment of horse manure treatment in a biogas plant, including associated transport, compared to on-site unmanaged composting, and finally a simplified economic analysis. It was found that horse manure management was characterized by indoor collection of manure most of the year and storage on concrete slabs or in containers, followed by direct application on arable land. Softwood was predominantly used as bedding, and bedding accounted for a relatively small proportion (13%) of the total mix. Anaerobic digestion was indicated to reduce potential environmental impact in comparison to unmanaged composting, mainly due to biogas substituting use of fossil fuels. The relative environmental impact from transport of manure from horse facilities to anaerobic digestion plant was small. Results also indicate a relatively high cost for horse keepers to change from composting on site to anaerobic digestion in a centralized plant.

The scale of the required changes is huge, and time is limited if we are to avoid the most severe effects of climate change. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road transport, several fuels and electricity originating from renewable energy sources have been proposed, all of them in different stages of development and with various and shifting environmental impacts. This thesis aims at increasing the usefulness of environmental assessments of emerging technologies as a basis for strategic technology choice. Recommendations for the design and interpretation of such assessments are presented, with a special focus on life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. A long time perspective, the possibility of system change, and the inclusion of socio–technical change processes allows for the revision of methodological assumptions normally made in LCA of current products. To guide the selection of technologies, there is need for assessment both of technology and of interventions. For the assessment of technology, an attributional approach is applied. Paper I discusses and tests the feasible futures and future performance to be considered in attributional LCAs. The results indicate that the environmental impact attributable to a number of selected fuels, as well as the ranking of them, largely depend on assumptions regarding background systems and by-product use. For the assessment of interventions, a consequential approach is applied. Extensive studies of socio–technical change processes contribute insight into relevant cause–effect chains that can be included in environmental assessments of emerging technologies. A comparison between the Swedish and the Dutch innovation systems for renewable fuels reveals the unfolding of dynamics influenced by shared background factors (Paper II). An investigation of the Swedish history of alternative fuels is used in developing a framework for analysing interaction between emerging technological systems (Paper III). Insights into socio–technical change processes are then used to elaborate scenarios for the future development of renewable fuels in Sweden resulting from current policy choices (Paper IV). In a final paper (Paper V), historical and future cause–effect chains are taken into account in a consequential LCA of ethanol of varying origins in Sweden for the 1990–2020 period. It is concluded that for emerging technologies in an early stage of development, the contribution of an intervention to system change may be more important than the direct change in environmental impact. Finally, it is suggested that all aspects of socio–technical change and the resulting environmental impact may not have to be included in quantitative environmental assessments, such as LCA. ‘Environmental assessment’ could very well include a group of parallel studies that illuminate different cause–effect chains resulting in changed environmental impact, and that are part of a society-wide learning process.

There are several methods to evaluate the environmental performance of new technologies. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the methodological development of environmental assessments, with contributions from life-cycle assessment (LCA), theories on technical change and socio-technical scenarios. LCA, or ‘well-to-wheel studies’, is a widely used tool for evaluating the environmental performance of alternative transport fuels. However, the methodology is usually not adapted to answer questions regarding strategic technology choice. Suggestions are presented that could increase the usefulness of LCA in this respect. A ‘net output approach’ is used, where fuels are used for their own production and distribution. Background system changes and the size of byproduct markets are studied, and it is shown that these factors can have a large influence on the results. Studies of LCA type can be used to give information on which fuels that have a low environmental impact today, and which are promising in the long run. However, it is suggested that also dynamic processes of technical changed need to be taken into account in the selection of technologies. In a study of the history of alternative transport fuels in Sweden, we show that also short-term options can contribute to the development towards more promising long-term options. Investments in alternative fuels during the years have not only resulted in physical artefacts and new explicit knowledge, but have also created dedicated actors and changed tacit knowledge and normative rules. Positive feedback loops related to actors, knowledge and rules have created more actors and changed regulation, and an ability of alternatives to survive. At the same time, the growth of some alternatives has favoured others, due to overlaps in socio-technical systems. However, the growth of alternatives is still very much dependent on exogenous factors and policy. The balance between short-term and long-term options in the transition of the transport system is illustrated through the use of socio-technical scenarios. These show that there is a risk that any policy could result in a negative development for renewable alternatives, but they also suggest that there are opportunities for growth. Policy could balance the development in different parts of the system, and make use of short-term options to contribute to more radical changes in the transport system.

Syftet med den här studien är att sammanställa hur aktörer verksamma i återvinningsbranschen i Sverige tar fram siffror på, och kommunicerar klimatnyttan vid återvinning av olika material, samt att undersöka hur väl de använda metoderna överensstämmer med vetenskapliga studier. Resultaten visar att flera stora aktörer inom branschen kommunicerar klimatnytta på likvärdiga sätt, i syftet att visa på ”den klimatnytta som återvinningen redan idag medför och vilken potential som finns att öka återvinningens bidrag till en minskad klimatpåverkan”. Detta innebär bland annat att aktörerna har för avsikt att vara både tillbakablickande och framåtblickande, samt att företag inte försöker jämföra sig med varandra med utgångspunkt i klimatnytta.

Det tillgängliga underlaget och hur det används för beräkningar och kommunikation av klimatnytta visar sig ha flera brister som är signifikativa för miljöbedömningar. I huvudsak handlar dessa om att man kombinerar siffror från studier med olika antaganden vad gäller tidsperspektiv, geografisk täckning och val av växthusgaser, vilket innebär att resultaten inte blir rättvisande för något ändamål, och att man i princip inte kan dra några slutsatser från materialet. Samtidigt finns det gott om studier som rätt hanterade kan komma till användning för de syften de är framtagna för.

I rapporten framhålls tre viktiga aspekter att förbättra vid beräkning och kommunikation av klimatnyttan med återvinning, samt vid användning av resultaten. För det första handlar klimatnytta inte bara om koldioxid, och miljönytta handlar inte bara om växthusgaser. Beräkningar av andra typer av utsläpp kan visa på ytterligare fördelar och eventuella nackdelar med återvinning. För det andra bör metodval och antaganden vara kopplade till studiens syfte, samt vara konsekventa, för att ge rättvisande och jämförbara resultat. För det tredje bör resultaten från olika studier endast användas för det syfte de är avsedda för, alternativt bearbetas för att kunna användas i andra sammanhang.

Eftersom samtliga aktörer inom återvinningsbranschen i Sverige verkar ha liknande syften med sin kommunikation av klimatnyttan med materialåtervinning, och då tillgängligt dataunderlag inte ger något utrymme för att jämföra företag med varandra identifieras följande möjligheter för det fortsatta arbetet.

1. Först och främst kan man inom branschen stämma av och eventuellt enas om vilka olika syften man vill uppnå med att beräkna klimatnytta.
2. Därefter kan man gå vidare och arbeta tillsammans för att komma tillrätta med de brister som finns i underlaget, samt i hur det används. En möjlighet är att anlita en expert för att välja ut, bearbeta och komplettera det underlag som finns, så att det kan användas för de syften man vill uppnå. Branschen kan sedan försöka komma överens om gemensamma siffror, samt om hur de bör kommuniceras på lämpligt sätt.
3. En framtida möjlighet inom området kan också vara att utveckla gemensamma riktlinjer för hur man ska ta fram och kommunicera företagsspecifika siffror på klimatnytta, i syfte att möjliggöra jämförelser mellan olika företag.

The purpose of this project is to compare emissions of greenhouse gases from material recycling with those from virgin material production, both from a material supply perspective and from a recycling system perspective. The method for estimating emissions and climate benefits is based on a review, followed by a selection, of the most relevant publications on life cycle assessment (LCA) of materials for use in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. The proposed averages show that emissions from material recycling are lower in both perspectives, comparing either material supply or complete recycling systems. The results can be used by companies and industry associations in Denmark, Norway and Sweden to communicate the current climate benefits of material recycling in general. They may also contribute to discussions on a societal level, as long as their average and historic nature is recognised.

The development and diffusion of technological innovations need governing in order to contribute to societal goals related to sustainability. Yet, there are few systematic studies mapping out what types of governance are deployed and how they influence the development and diffusion of sustainable technological innovations. This paper develops a framework for analysing the role of governance in innovation systems aimed towards sustainability. The framework is based on the literatures on governance, technological innovation systems and socio-technical transitions. We foresee empirical studies based on the framework that may serve as a needed input into governance processes. © Beech Tree Publishing 2011.

Fostering sustainable technologies –a framework for analysing the governance of innovation systemsKarl Hillman, Post-doc researcher, Institute for Management of Innovation and Technology (IMIT) and University of Gothenburg,SwedenMåns Nilsson, Associate professor, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), SwedenAnnika Rickne*, Associate professor, University of Gothenburg and Institute for Management of Innovation and Technology (IMIT), SwedenThomas Magnusson, Assistantprofessor, Institute for Management of Innovation and Technology (IMIT) and Linköping University, SwedenAbstractThere is an ever-growing recognition among policy-makers, industries and analysts that the development and diffusion of technological innovations need governing in order to contribute to societal goals related to sustainability, such as climate change mitigation and resource efficiency. Yet, little is known about how different types of governance influence innovation processes, and what may be effective governance arrangements to pursue to influence the development and diffusion of sustainable technological innovations. This paper develops a framework for the analysis of governance arrangements aimed at fostering more sustainable technological innovations. The framework addresses important debates in governance and innovation research. First, it addresses a critical gap in the literature on technological innovation systems (TISs) which is the connection between governance arrangements and the functionality of the TIS. Second, it contextualizes this connection in relation to the multi-level perspective (MLP) to transitions, assuming that governance arrangements influence in different ways the functionality of the TIS depending on the structure, stability and positioning of the TIS in relation to the regime. Third, it develops a comprehensive heuristic to examine the prevalence, role and effectiveness of various modes of governance, departing from a simple typology of "who governs", "how do they govern", and "what isgoverned".The framework prompts a temporal causal analysis of predominantly qualitative nature.

By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system.

Life Cycle Assessments (LCA, including Well-to-Wheel studies) that are to support decisions that strive to change large technical systems need to consider time and scale related factors, which are given little attention in standard LCA procedures. Here, we address three issues and provide examples from the case of alternative fuels. First, shifting time frame gives room for technical development that should affect not only the choice of performance data, but perhaps also the functional unit and the selection of technologies under study. Secondly, background systems, such as heat and power production, change over time and increased production volumes of the alternative fuel change the transport system that is used to produce transport fuel. We show that such changes have consequences not only for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from each fuel-chain, but also for the ranking order of, e.g. Rapeseed Methyl Esther (RME) and ethanol in terms of GHG emissions. Finally, different types of feedstock are available in different quantities and different by-product markets vary in size. Key markets for RME by-products in EU correspond to an RME production that covers about 3% of transport fuel demand. Consequently, GHG emissions that are allocated to the fuel should change with the scale of adoption

Supporting the development and diffusion of sustainable innovations has become a dominanttopic on the political agenda of many countries. However, this has proven to be a difficult task. Toincrease insight in such processes, this paper takes biofuel technologies in the mobility sector asthe topic of a comparative case study. Various national governments have supported innovationtrajectories around biofuels. We analyse, assess and compare two such trajectories as theyhave developed so far: one in the Netherlands and one in Sweden. A Technological InnovationSystem (TIS) approach is applied. A TIS is constituted by actors, networks and institutions,that are to be gradually constructed around a technology. We analyse whether governmentsand entrepreneurs have succeeded in developing seven key processes, or system functions,necessary for the development and diffusion of biofuel technologies. By analysing the build-upof system functions over time we identify virtuous and vicious forms of cumulative causation.The Dutch and Swedish TISs for biofuels are followed from 1990 to 2005. Our comparisonshows that, due to the fulfilment of system functions and the emergence of cumulative causation,the Swedish TIS has reached a market expansion and broad social implementation of biofuels,whereas the Dutch TIS has established considerably less.

There are various ways to perform environmental assessment of emerging technologies, to be used as a base for decision-making. For instance, direct effects of a technology investment can be assessed, as in consequential studies, or the environmental impact in a number of possible future scenarios can be calculated, using an attributional approach. Here, we propose a consequential approach that includes socio-technical change, to account for contributions of an investment to system change and the resulting improvements (or deterioration) in environmental performance. We have earlier performed a socio-technical analysis of the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden, both in a historic perspective and with scenarios for the coming years. Our aim was to investigate how new technologies emerge and grow, and how investments in one technology affect the growth of others. The results show for instance that a research program on coal gasification in the 1970’s, or an investment in a few ethanol buses in the 1980’s, have far-reaching effects on the development of alternative fuels in general. New actors are involved and institutions are adjusted that are in favour of the technology concerned (and related ones), thus stimulating further investments in new (and improved) technologies. Accordingly, some of the resulting environmental improvements could be allocated to early investments, and we would like to pose the question of how this could be accounted for in environmental assessment of emerging technologies. To illustrate this issue by an actual example, we use published LCA data to calculate the environmental impact of the use of ethanol as a vehicle fuel in Sweden at three points in time: 1990, 2005 and 2020. First, for each year, this will give us the LCA results traditionally used as a base for decision-making. Then we look at the factors related to socio-technical change: How does the environmental impact change between the years, both per functional unit and when looking at the total use of petrol and diesel replaced? These changes are compared with the LCA results for the three years to highlight the proportions, and it is discussed how they could be taken into account when performing and using environmental assessment as a base for decision-making regarding strategic technology choice.

This master thesis was performed in co-operation with SKF Sverige AB and the Department of Environmental Systems Analysis at Chalmers. The purpose of the project is to investigate the environmental aspects of the use-phase for bearings in trains. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been made, and together with earlier results, it is intended to give a deeper understanding of the environmental performance for the whole life cycle of bearings.

The environmental impact related to the use of wheel bearings in three generations of trains is studied, and comparisons are made between processes within the life cycle of the bearings, and between the bearings in the different generations of trains. The environmental aspects are related to friction losses when the bearings are in operation, and the use of electricity, water, detergents and oil products during maintenance.

The results show that the largest emissions of the use-phase for the bearings are related to electricity use caused by friction losses when the bearings are in operation in the trains. The emissions relation between operation and maintenance varies with the way the electricity is produced, but the emissions from operation are up to 1 000 times higher.

The electricity use related to the bearings is up to 30 percent higher for the heavy train with Spherical Roller Bearings (SRBs), compared to the lighter one with the same bearings and the heavier one with Taper Bearing Units (TBUs). When the mass of the trains is considered, the bearings in the train with TBUs show a 30-40 percent lower electricity use.

The environmental impact related to the transport of the trains to a wheel axle dismounting site can be of the same size as that from trains bearings in operation, if a detour of about 500 km or more is needed.

During maintenance, most electricity is used for heating of washing water and heating of SRBs for mounting. The emissions from naphtha production, oil and grease production and waste oil handling are noticeably lower for the maintenance of TBUs, due to lower grease use, and the use of water and detergent for washing, instead of naphtha.

The study can be used as a motivation to perform more explicit investigations of the environmental impact of different construction, maintenance and transports alternatives, and of how to include the results in product development and everyday work.

In this paper we use a socio-technical scenario approach to illustrate how the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden can be influenced by different policy choices. With the present situation as a starting point, we introduce different feasible scenarios for the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden from 2005-2020. The scenario policies differ mainly on two points: (i) the commitment and economic incentives aiming at a rapid introduction of existing alternative transport fuels and (ii) the economic resources allocated to R&D of new, more efficient alternatives. The main focus on the first point in our market-oriented scenario and on the second in our technology-oriented scenario has implications for the development of the stocks and structures of the socio-techno-environmental system (STE-system). A first phase in the development is seen between 2005 and 2010. In the market-oriented scenario, a domestic production and a relatively widespread use of alternative transport fuels create advocates for these alternatives among producers and users. Limited explicit knowledge is gained, but legitimacy for alternatives to petrol and diesel is created. Physical artefacts are adjusted to the present alternative fuels, which are more similar to petrol and diesel than to new alternatives. In the technology-oriented scenario authorities and researchers are key actors. A high technical competence is built up in connection with pilot production plants for new alternative fuels. Both petrol and diesel are questioned, while the early alternatives are criticised for being too costly and having limited potential. A second phase, between 2011 and 2020, begins with a bifurcation of both scenarios, where one path from each is characterised by stagnation and one from each is characterised by growth, with regard to the potential for large-scale introduction of biofuels or other renewable fuels in Sweden. Our four scenarios, ending in 2020, can be seen as somewhat extreme examples of feasible outcomes resulting from policy choices made today. Numerous stocks and structures within the STE-system are affected and interact, to determine further changes of the system. In the market-oriented scenario, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternative fuels and vehicles, while we in the technology-oriented scenario point out the value of keeping variety among niches at the early stage of a transition. The latter may add to the capability to respond to exogenous shifts in a way that is beneficial for the transition.

Life cycle assessments (LCAs, including well-to-wheel studies) that are to support decisions that strive to change large technical systems need to consider time- and scale-related factors that are given little attention in standard LCA procedures. We suggest that it is important to look beyond the current situation and study many possible future states, what we call “stylised states”, to explore general technology differences. We choose to address three issues in this report. Our case study deals with alternative fuels for transportation, and relates to a recent well-to-wheel study performed by CONCAWE, EUCAR and JRC. The methodological results, though, could be of equal importance when studying other major technologies. First, shifting time frame gives room for technical development that should affect not only the choice of performance data, but perhaps also the functional unit and the selection of technologies under study. Second, background systems such as heat and power production change over time, and we exemplify by using three different systems, mainly based on coal, natural gas and short rotation forestry, respectively. Increased production volumes may for some technologies also change the background system, which is of particular importance for technologies that are used in their own production processes. We show that for biofuels changes in background systems have consequences not only for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and agricultural land use for each fuel chain, but also for the ranking order of e.g. wheat ethanol and RME, in terms of GHG emissions. We use what we call a “net output approach”, which implies that a fraction of the produced biofuel is used for its own production. Accordingly, the functional unit used in this study is 1 MJ fuel available for other purposes than producing fuel. Finally, different types of feedstock are available in different quantities and different by-product markets vary in size. Allocation of environmental impact between product and by-products is here made through system expansion, and we study some possible markets for by-products. To give an example of by-product effects, current key markets for ethanol by-products in EU-15 correspond to an ethanol production that covers about 2 % of demand, and for RME about 3 %, that is, well below the 5.75 % EU biofuel target for 2010. Therefore, the GHG emissions and agricultural land use allocated to the fuels differ between a low and a high market penetration. Combining the results, we show that time and scale are important factors for the ranking of wheat ethanol, RME and wood methanol in terms of GHG emissions and agricultural land use, as the results are dependent on assumptions regarding background system and by-product markets. We indicate that agricultural land use results can be weighted in GHG terms in several ways, e.g. by using short rotation forestry or solar panels as a reference, an approach that would require further research.

This paper examines patterns of governance aimed at sustainable technological innovation in the transport sector. It makes an overall assessment of governance emerging in the fields of biofuel and hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) technologies, and makes a classification of its characteristics. It examines the role of different actors and levels of governance as well as preferred mechanisms and targets of governance. The assessment reveals that there are rather differential patterns of governance influencing the two fields. For instance, international-level and market-based governance are much more prevalent in biofuels, whereas industry-led and cognitive governance play comparatively stronger roles in HEV. These patterns can be understood in light of both the different institutional and actor characteristics of the two technologies, and their positions in relation to socio-technical regimes.

This book is about how societies around the world can accelerate innovation in sustainable transport. It examines the relationship between policy change and the development of technological innovations in low carbon vehicle technologies, including biofuels, hybrid-electric vehicles, electric vehicles and fuel cells. Examining this relationship across countries and regions that are leaders in vehicle manufacturing and innovation, such as the European Union, Germany, Sweden, China, Japan, Korea and USA, the books aims to learn lessons about policy and innovation performance.

Erfarenheter av dagligt bruk

Inom ramen för projektet SELF-i, ”Svensk Enkät Laddbara Fordon – introduktionsfas”, genomfördes under våren-sommaren 2016 för första gången en nationellt övergripande enkät riktad till användare av laddbara bilar i Sverige. Projektet har finansierats av Energimyndigheten och syftet har varit att söka svar på vad dessa personer, med erfarenheter av dagligt bruk/ägande, tänker om ”elbilar och elektromobilitet”. Som ett första steg släpps denna populärvetenskapligarapport. Fram till sommaren 2017 kommer sedan tre fördjupningsrapporter att produceras.

Villaägare överrepresenterade

Övergripande konstateras, inte helt oväntat, att det finns en tydlig överrepresentation av villaägare bland de som kör laddbara bilar privat.Så mycket som 80 procent av elbilsanvändarna bor i villa. Till bilden hör att den vanligaste konsumenten bland de som svarat – välutbildade, manliga förare över 50 som bor i villa – köper fler nya bilar än snittbefolkningen. Men en första tolkning av resultaten är den höga andelen villaägare bland laddbilsförare kan förklaras med att det är enklare att ordna med laddning för denna grupp.

Laddhybrid vanligare i enbilshushåll

Endast 15 procent av de elbilsanvändare som svarat på enkätendisponerar inte någon annan bil i hushållet/verksamheten, och för laddhybridsanvändarna ärmotsvarande siffra 30 procent. Det är alltså dubbelt så vanligt med laddhybrid än med elbil i enbilshushåll. Omvänt kan man konstatera att 15% av elbilsanvändarna klarar sig med endast en elbil.Totalt sett har 19 procent av elbilsanvändarna som besvarat enkäten –9 procent av totala antalet respondenter –endasttillgång till en eller flera elbilar. Räknar vi bort användare av Tesla Model S är det 12 procent av elbilsanvändarna som bara har tillgång till elbil(ar)med kortare räckvidd.

Flerbilshushåll en tydlig konsumentgrupp

Hushåll med flera bilar är en mycket tydlig konsumentgrupp. 18 procent av elbilsanvändarna säger att köpet inneburit att man nu äger en bil till. Men noterbart är att 19 procent av flerbilshushållen är säkra eller nästan säkra på att dom kommer att göra sig av med sin andra bil. Över 40 procent av elbilsanvändarna med en fossilbil instämmer helt i påstående att dom kommer att ersätta sin andra bil med en ren elbil. 46 procent av dessa ägare räknar med att byta bilen inom 2 år. Samtidigt anger 30 procent av elbilsanvändarna att de reser mer eller mycket mer med bil sedan den laddbara bilen köptes, och för användare av laddhybriderär siffran ca 10 procent. Endast ett fåtal procent anger att de reser mindre eller mycket mindre. Cirka 10 procent anger dessutom att resandet med kollektivtrafik har blivit mindre eller mycket mindre.

Elbilen – enstadsbil?

Uppfattningen att rena elbilar är stadsbilar och att laddhybrider passar för personer utanför städerna stärks inte av enkätmaterialet. Från materialet ser vi att runt 40 procent av de som kör en elbil bor i ett samhälle med mindre än 10 000 invånare. För användareav laddhybrider är andelen i mindre samhällenendast 30 procent. Omvänt kan endast 4 procentav elbilarnakopplas till bostadsrätter i städer med fler än 100 000 invånare. Motsvarande siffra för laddhybrider är 6 procent. Men vi får avvakta analyserna av data innan vi utropar elbilen som populärare på landsbygden. Först krävs bland annat en jämförelse mot statistik över vanliga diesel-och bensinbilar och en analys som skiljer på mindre samhällen på landsbygden och i nära anslutning till städer.

Jämförelse svensk och norsk studie

SELF-i-studien har tidsmässigt synkroniserats med en norsk studie med vissa gemensamma frågor. En första jämförelse mellan den norska och den svenska studien visar att det är en större andel villaägare med elbil i Sverige (80 procent) än i Norge (69 procent). Sverige verkar även ha färre elbilar i storstäderna än man har i Norge. Tillgång till laddplatser/parkeringar, bussfiler mm kan ha stimulerat den norska urbana elektromobilitetsutvecklingen, men vad skillnaden beror på och om den kan/böranvändas som argument för att stimulera laddbara bilar i städer är dock för tidigt att säga. Det kan ju vara så att villaägare i mindre orter kör mer/längre och att ett stort laddbilsintresse i denna grupp då ger en möjlighet att spara mer olja och erbjuda en högre miljönytta per såld laddbar bil i denna tidiga fas av elektromobilitetsutvecklingen.

Laddning

Laddningen i anslutning till hemmet dominerar. Vi ser även att många laddar via vanlig Shucko-kontakt och att standardiserade ladduttag är vanligare på arbetsplatser än i hemmet. Tre-fasladdare i bilen är tydligt önskat och faktiskt mer eftertraktat än nya modeller från tillverkarna. Vi ser att en större andel av laddhybridsanvändarna sällan eller aldrig laddar offentligt/vid köpcentra. Laddhybridanvändarna stör sig mer på behovet att ladda ofta och en betydligt större andel av dem ser hantering av laddkabel som en nackdel.

Tjänstebilar viktigt segment, nästa bil blir en elbil

Mer än 90 procentav de som kör elbil är mycket säkra på att nästa bil blir en elbil eller en laddhybrid och endast 2,5 procent är tveksam eller mycket tveksam till en laddbar bil nästa gång.Tittar man djupare i statistiken ser man att elbilsanvändare överlag verkar mer nöjda än de som använder laddhybrid. Av de som kör elbil idag kommer en väldigt stor andel att välja en elbil nästa gång: 89procent är säkra eller mycket säkra på att även nästa bil blir en ren elbil. Endast 48 procent av laddhybridsanvändarna är säkra/mycket säkra på att man väljer en laddhybrid igen och 21 procent står och väger. I båda grupperna är färre än 30 procent tveksamma eller mycket tveksamma till påståendet att 4 av 5 tjänstebilar som säljs 2021 är laddbara. Gällande en sådan fördelning bland de närmaste vännerna är tveksamheten betydligt större, bland laddhybridsanvändare hela 52 procent.

Drivkrafter vid inköp

Av de skäl som lyfts fram som drivkrafter vid valet av biltyp är miljöegenskaper, intresset för teknik, driftsäkerhet och låga drivmedelskostnader viktiga frågor. Det bör noteras att dessa faktorer, som brukar lyftas fram som reella elbilsfördelar, värderats högre än konstruerade elbilsfördelar som supermiljöbilspremien och lägre förmånsvärde på bilen. En annan faktor vid inköp som varit viktig är att tillgång till laddning på arbetet/skola och hemma. En överväldigande majoritet ser det också som en fördel att kunna ladda hemma.

Building on previous research, we further develop a theoretical framework for transition analysis. In particular, we are interested in the forces that guide the direction of change. We differentiate between exogenous and endogenous change where the latter can be described by the cumulative build-up of stocks and structures, which create path dependence, within a socio-technical system. Using this theoretical framework we discuss the relationship between different emerging technological alternatives to an incumbent technology, their competition and co-evolution, and their roles as bridges and dead-ends in a transition process. We then describe and analyse an early period of an ongoing transition in the road transport sector: the history of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 1974 to 2004.

The relationship between technologies is a salient feature of the literature on technical change and terms like ’dominant design’ and ’technology lock-in’ are part of the standard vocabulary and put competition among technologies in focus. The aim of this paper is to provide an account of the wide range of interaction modes beyond competition that is prevalent in transition processes and to develop a conceptual framework to facilitate more detailed and nuanced descriptions of technology interaction. Besides competition, we identify five other basic modes of interaction: symbiosis, neutralism, parasitism, commensalism and amensalism. Further, we describe interaction as overlapping value chains. Defining a technology as a socio-technical system extending in material, organisational and conceptual dimensions allows for an even more detailed description of interaction. The conceptual framework is tested on and illustrated by a case study of interaction among alternative transport fuels in Sweden 1974-2004. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change is challenging human life and infrastructures by modifying the environment in which we live at a difficult-to-adapt rate. The transition to a low carbon and sustainable society is key to avoid a further decline of the climate and the environment and can be achieved by adopting renewable energy sources. The necessary increase in renewable energy production faces challenges like identifying cost effective power storage solutions and adapting to inadequate electricity grid infrastructures. Renewable energy, however, cannot be the only solution for sectors that are hard to electrify. Green hydrogen from renewable-based electricity can represent a solution for decarbonization. Hydrogen, produced from renewable resources, storable, and with a high potential to replace fossil fuels in the most energy intensive, hard-to-decarbonize and polluting applications, can play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation.

The study analyzes the factors influencing the environmental sustainability and growth of hydrotreated vegetableoil (HVO) in Sweden. The major feedstocks identified in the HVO supply chain are palm oil, rapeseed oil,PFAD, tallow and tall oil. LCA studies reveal that feedstock grown on-purpose have larger life cycle GHGemissions than residual feedstock. However, due to the limited supply of residual feedstock there is a need to bemore dependent on domestic sustainable resources. The complexity of feedstock, origin, processing technologies,allocation approach, land use changes (LUC) and selection of environmental categories could result in variationsof the LCA results. To achieve national emissions target, policy instruments such as reduction obligations and taxincentives favor the market for HVO. However, to see more comprehensive results of the HVO development,research is needed to integrate the technological perspective from pilot scale to the commercialized market atlocal, regional and global level.