To what extent might a crop with increased plant N uptake efficiency and/or N demand increase plant biomass and soil carbon storage, decrease N leaching, and reduce the need for N fertilisation? This was assessed for a fertilised sandy loam site in central Sweden cultivated with spring barley for a four year period using a process based crop and soil simulation model (SOILN) calibrated to fit observations of field experiments with non-modified crops. Crop properties were changed in accordance with previous model applications to other crops with higher N uptake and utilisation efficiencies, to resemble potential effects of breeding. For the modified crops a doubling of daily uptake efficiency of soil mineral N and/or increase of radiation use efficiency by 30%, increased plant biomass by 3%-30%, decreased N leaching by 1%-30% and increased soil organic carbon (SOC) content by 1-12 g C m-2 year-1. The larger changes were mainly due to increased uptake efficiency. Fertilisation of the modified spring barley crop could be reduced while still producing the same plant biomass as the non-modified crop. The plant biomass to N leaching ratio of the modified crops increased. The simulated changes in plant biomass and SOC were sensitive to weather conditions suggesting that in situ experiments would need to cover a large range of weather conditions to evaluate the performance of new crop traits under climatic variability. The study suggests a strong need that field experiments are accompanied with model applications, when exploring the potential of the modified crops under variable conditions.

Natural water retention measures (NWRM) are a multifunctional form of green infrastructure that can play an important role in catchment-scale flood risk management. While green infrastructure based on natural processes is increasingly recognised as being complementary to traditional flood control strategies based on grey infrastructure in urban areas, there are a number of outstanding challenges with their widespread uptake. At a catchment scale, it is widely accepted that NWRM in upstream areas based on the concept of ’keeping the rain where it falls’ can help reduce the risk of downstream flooding by enhancing or restoring natural hydrological processes including interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and ponding. However, both the magnitude of flood risk reduction and the institutional structures needed for widespread uptake of NWRM are inadequately understood. Implementing NWRM can involve trade-offs, especially in agricultural areas. Measures based on drainage management and short rotation forestry may help ’keep the rain where it falls’ but can result in foregone farm income. To identify situations where the implementation of NWRM may be warranted, an improved understanding of the likely reductions in downstream urban flood risk, the required institutional structures for risk management and transfer, and mutually acceptable farm compensation schemes are all needed.

The potential of modified spring barley crops with improved nitrogen (N) use efficiency to reduce nitrogen (N) leaching and to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) storage was assessed at the regional scale. This was done using simulation model applications designed for reporting according to the Helcom (Helsinki Commission) and Kyoto protocols. Using model simulations based on modified crops N dynamics and SOC were assessed for three agro-ecological regions (latitudes ranging 55°20′–60°40′ N) in Sweden over a 20-year period. The modified N use properties of spring barley were implemented in the SOILNDB model (simulating soil C, N, water and heat, and plant N dynamics) by changing the parameters for root N uptake efficiency and plant N demand within a range given by previous model applications to different crops. A doubling of the daily N uptake efficiency and increased N demand (by ca 30%) reduced N leaching by 24%–31%, increased plant N content by 9%–12%, depending on region. The effects of the modified crop on SOC was simulated with the ICBM model, resulting in an increased SOC content (0–25 cm depth) by 57–79 kg C ha⁻¹ y⁻¹. The results suggest that a modified crop might reduce N leaching from spring barley area, in a range similar to the targets of relevant environmental protection directives, a result which held more in the northern than southern regions. The simulated SOC increase on a hectare basis was highest for the central region and least for the most northern region. For the total agricultural area the share of spring barley area was small and more crops would need to be modified to reach the emission reduction targets.

Current international agreements call for a significant reduction of nitrogen loads to the Baltic Sea. New measures to reduce nitrogen loads from the agricultural sector and an increased focus on cost efficiency will be needed to meet reduction targets. For policy design and evaluation it is important to understand the impact of weather on the efficiency of abatement measures. One new proposed policy is the use of crop permits based on weather normalized average leaching. This paper describes the use of the Spearman method to determine the efficiency of this policy with annual weather variation. The conclusion is that the values of the Spearman correlation coefficients in the study indicate that using average leaching for the individual crops on specific soil types for calculating crop permit requirements is an efficient policy. The Spearman method is demonstrated to be a simple useful tool for evaluating the impact of weather and is recommended for use in new studies.

Current international agreements call for a significant reduction of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. In one of the signatory countries, Sweden, regulatory authorities have concluded that new measures will be needed to meet national reduction targets. This article evaluates the effect of one possible new measure for reducing nitrogen loads, introducing mandatory discharge permits for crop cultivation as one component of a proposed discharge permit system. Using the framework of the proposed system, expected net load reductions and permit prices are calculated for three crop permit scenarios in a catchment in Southern Sweden. In addition, gross leaching is calculated for a larger region to study the potential for reducing net loads. The article concludes that while permitting reduces loading, achieving reduction targets will require additional measures beyond the scenarios studied.