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Future Climate and Rising Cooling Demands: Energy Solutions and Overheating Resistivity for a Warmer Sweden
University of Gävle, Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development, Department of Building Engineering, Energy Systems and Sustainability Science, Energy Systems and Building Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1832-9827
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In the summer of 2018, Sweden experienced an intense and prolonged heatwave, marked by high temperatures across the country, highlighting the future need for space cooling in residential buildings. The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, driven by climate change, pose significant challenges to the built environment, particularly concerning the energy demand for cooling and the maintenance of thermal comfort in homes. This thesis investigates the impact of future climate conditions on building energy performance, evaluates various cooling technologies, and assesses building resilience to overheating under mid-century climate scenarios. This study focuses on a future residential district in Gävle, Sweden, using projected climate files based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario.

A range of cooling technologies were analyzed, including district cooling, absorption chillers, and compression chillers with and without photovoltaic (PV) systems. The performance of these technologies was evaluated based on their primary energy use, life cycle cost analysis (LCCA), and climate resilience using novel overheating resistivity metrics, such as the overheating escalation factor (αIOD) and Indoor Overheating Degree Signature Slope Ratio (ISSR). Climate projections for 2050 indicate substantial increases in cooling demand, with maximum temperatures rising by up to 4.5 ° C during heatwaves compared to current conditions.

The results demonstrate that compression chillers combined with PV systems represent the most energy-efficient and economically viable cooling solution, based on the boundary conditions and factors considered in this study. However, district cooling remains a competitive option for large-scale developments, benefiting from economies of scale. Absorption chillers were found to be suboptimal because of their high energy use and higher life cycle costs.

Furthermore, The study reveals that building typology influences resistance to overheating, with block buildings exhibiting better performance due to their compact design. Resilience metrics such as αIOD and ISSR underscore the importance of integrating adaptive comfort models and passive design strategies to improve building resilience under future climate conditions.

This work provides critical insights into the selection of cost-effective and resilient cooling technologies while promoting sustainable building practices. The findings contribute to the growing body of research on climate adaptation in the built environment, guiding future policy and design strategies to mitigate the impacts of extreme heat in urban areas.

Abstract [sv]

Sommaren 2018 drabbades Sverige av en intensiv och långvarig värmebölja med rekordhöga temperaturer över hela landet. Denna händelse belyser behovet av kylsystem i bostäder framöver. Den ökande frekvensen och intensiteten av värmeböljor, som drivs av klimatförändringar, utgör betydande utmaningar för den byggda miljön, särskilt vad gäller energibehov för kylning och inomhustemperaturkomfort. Denna avhandling undersöker hur framtida klimatförhållanden påverkar byggnaders energiprestanda, utvärderar olika kylteknologier och analyserar byggnaders motståndskraft mot överhettning i scenarier för mitten av seklet.

Studien fokuserar på ett framtida bostadsområde i Gävle, Sverige, och använder klimatfiler baserade på det representativa koncentrationsscenariot (RCP) 8.5. Ett antal kylteknologier analyserades, inklusive fjärrkyla, absorptionskylmaskiner samt kompressorkylmaskiner, både med och utan solcellsanläggningar (PV-system). Prestandan hos dessa teknologier utvärderades utifrån deras primära energianvändning, livscykelkostnadsanalys (LCCA) och klimattålighet med hjälp av innovativa mått för överhettningsresistens, såsom överhettningens eskalationsfaktor (αIOD) och Indoor Overheating Degree Signature Slope Ratio (ISSR). Klimatprognoser för år 2050 visar betydande ökningar i kylbehovet, med maximala temperaturer som kan stiga med upp till 4,5°C under värmeböljor jämfört med dagens nivåer.

Resultaten visar att kompressorkylmaskiner kombinerade med solcellsanläggningar är den mest energieffektiva och ekonomiskt fördelaktiga lösningen inom studiens ramar. Fjärrkyla framstår dock som ett konkurrenskraftigt alternativ för storskaliga utvecklingsprojekt, tack vare dess stordriftsfördelar. Absorptionskylmaskiner visade sig vara mindre optimala på grund av hög energiförbrukning och högre livscykelkostnader.

Studien avslöjar dessutom att byggnadstyp har en betydande inverkan på motståndskraften mot överhettning, där flerbostadshus presterar bättre tack vare sin kompakta design. Resiliensmått som αIOD och ISSR understryker vikten av att integrera adaptiva komfortmodeller och passiva designstrategier för att stärka byggnaders tålighet under framtida klimatförhållanden.

Arbetet ger viktiga insikter om val av kostnadseffektiva och resilienta kylteknologier samtidigt som det främjar hållbara byggnadspraxis. Resultaten bidrar till den växande forskningen om klimatanpassning inom den byggda miljön och ger vägledning för framtida policyer och designstrategier för att minska effekterna av extrem värme i urbana områden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Gävle: Gävle University Press , 2025. , p. 69
Series
Doctoral thesis ; 56
Keywords [en]
Future climate, Heat wave predictions, Building simulations, Life cycle cost analysis, Overheating resistivity, Absorption chiller, District cooling, Compression chillers
Keywords [sv]
Framtida klimat, Värmeböljeprognoser, Byggnadssimuleringar, Livscykelkostnadsanalys, Motståndskraft mot överhettning, Absorptionskylare, Fjärrkyla, Kompressorkylare
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-46089ISBN: 978-91-89593-54-1 (print)ISBN: 978-91-89593-55-8 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-46089DiVA, id: diva2:1916606
Public defence
2025-02-06, 12:108, Kungsbäcksvägen 47, Gävle, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-01-10 Created: 2024-11-28 Last updated: 2025-01-10Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Cooling demand reduction approaches for typical buildings in a future city district in mid-Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Cooling demand reduction approaches for typical buildings in a future city district in mid-Sweden
2021 (English)In: Proceedings of Building Simulation 2021: 17th International Conference of IBPSA, International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA), 2021, article id 30327Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The increase in population and living standards, as well as global warming and heatwaves due to climate change, have created a challenge to meet the cooling demand in buildings. In this study, the cooling requirement for a multifamily building through simulations in a future city district in central-Sweden was determined. Different air supply set point  strategies, window to floor ratio and building rotations were employed to minimize the cooling requirements. The building was modelled so as to meet the Nearly Zero Energy Building (NZEB) requirements. Window to floor ratio of 10% with a piecewise proportional controller for supply temperature was depicted as appropriate for the building. A 45° rotation of the building increased the cooling demand. The cooling demand of the building increased by employing the extreme climate condition, as a representative for future climate, with factors 3.8 and 6.4 for cooling set points 25°C and 27°C for window to floor ratio 10%. This implies the need for a resilient building to withstand future climate conditions. The requirement to update the climate files was also used for decision making in the design process and building regulation. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA), 2021
National Category
Energy Engineering
Research subject
Sustainable Urban Development
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-36994 (URN)
Conference
Building Simulation 2021
Available from: 2021-09-03 Created: 2021-09-03 Last updated: 2024-12-04Bibliographically approved
2. Analyzing the climate-driven energy demand and carbon emission for a prototype residential nZEB in central Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analyzing the climate-driven energy demand and carbon emission for a prototype residential nZEB in central Sweden
2022 (English)In: Energy and Buildings, ISSN 0378-7788, E-ISSN 1872-6178, Vol. 261, article id 111960Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The changes in climate and the expected extreme climate conditions in the future, given the long life span of the buildings have pushed the design limits. In this study, the changes in primary energy use (PEPET), total energy use and CO2 emission were investigated for a prototype residential building. The building fulfils nearly zero energy building (NZEB) characteristics, imposed by the Swedish building regulations. Different cooling technologies and various typical meteorological year (TMY) climate files assembled for different periods, as well as automatic shading were investigated. The assembled TMY files advocated for the present (2001-2020) and mid-future (2041-2060) period using the CORDEX data. Different cooling methods and set-points (24-28°C) were defined to evaluate the cooling energy requirement changes.

It was discovered that the freely available typical climate file fails to cover the induced changes in climate and its extreme implications on the building. The required cooling energy use increased from 1.7-5.8 times the freely available climate file, when using the projected TMY and the extreme climate files.

Addition of automatic shading system reduced cooling energy up to 75% within the studied cooling methods and set-points. Moreover PEPET and CO2 emission also decreased for the studied cooling methods, climate and weather files.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022
Keywords
Future climate file, extreme weather file, building performance simulation, primary energy number, carbon emission
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Sustainable Urban Development
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-38005 (URN)10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.111960 (DOI)000800422900010 ()2-s2.0-85125273703 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 48296-1
Available from: 2022-02-22 Created: 2022-02-22 Last updated: 2024-12-04Bibliographically approved
3. Comparison of Space Cooling Systems from Energy and Economic Perspectives for a Future City District in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Comparison of Space Cooling Systems from Energy and Economic Perspectives for a Future City District in Sweden
Show others...
2023 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 16, no 9, article id 3852Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this study, the performance of different cooling technologies from energy and economicperspectives were evaluated for six different prototype residential Nearly Zero Energy Buildings(NZEBs) within a planned future city district in central Sweden. This was carried out by assessingthe primary energy number and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for each building model and coolingtechnology. Projected future climate file representing the 2050s (mid-term future) was employed.Three cooling technologies (district cooling, compression chillers coupled/uncoupled with photovoltaic (PV) systems, and absorption chillers) were evaluated. Based on the results obtained fromprimary energy number and LCCA, compression chillers with PV systems appeared to be favorableas this technology depicted the least value for primary energy use and LCCA. Compared to compression chillers alone, the primary energy number and the life cycle cost were reduced by 13%, onaverage. Moreover, the district cooling system was found to be an agreeable choice for buildingswith large floor areas from an economic perspective. Apart from these, absorption chillers, utilizingenvironmentally sustainable district heating, displayed the highest primary energy use and life cycle cost which made them the least favorable choice. However, the reoccurring operational cost fromthe LCCA was about 60 and 50% of the total life cycle cost for district cooling and absorption chillers,respectively, while this value corresponds to 80% for the compression chillers, showing the high netpresent value for this technology but sensitive to future electricity prices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2023
Keywords
nearly zero energy building (NZEB), primary energy number, district cooling, absorption and compression chillers, life cycle cost analysis, climate-resilient buildings
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Sustainable Urban Development
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-41711 (URN)10.3390/en16093852 (DOI)000987062500001 ()2-s2.0-85159329094 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 48296-1Swedish Energy Agency, 2019-003410
Available from: 2023-04-30 Created: 2023-04-30 Last updated: 2024-12-04Bibliographically approved
4. A simulation analysis on the internal and external application of new silica-aerogel-based (Quartzene) coatings effects on energy use in a typical building in two different climates
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A simulation analysis on the internal and external application of new silica-aerogel-based (Quartzene) coatings effects on energy use in a typical building in two different climates
2025 (English)In: Science and Technology for the Built Environment, ISSN 2374-4731, E-ISSN 2374-474X, Vol. 31, no 1, p. 155-171Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The study investigates the impact of improved synthetic amorphous silica, specifically developed aerogel-based insulating coatings, Quartzene (Qz), on energy efficiency in buildings across cold and warm climate zones. Simulations were conducted on various coatings and thicknesses for exterior and interior wall surfaces, as well as roofs. These were evaluated using a prototype residential building under dynamic thermal conditions. Wall coatings were analyzed, including a base plaster and a mixture with 10%Wt aerogel-based Quartzene. Additionally, three roof coating samples were tested: Qz 12.5%Wt, TiO2 3.3%Wt, and a blend of aerogel-based mixtures and TiO2. Mixtures containing Qz exhibited the lowest thermal conductivity (0.05 W/(m·K)) and high short-wave reflectance (up to 0.93 μm), impacting transmission loads, time lag, and decrement factor. Energy savings of up to 11% were observed in warm climates when implementing the coatings (unaged performance). Overall, the coated surfaces increased time lag and reduced decrement factor compared to uncoated surfaces. Aerogel-based coatings showed enhanced effectiveness in lowering transmission loads.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2025
Keywords
Silica-based aerogel; Quartzene; wall plasters; roof coatings; energy performance of building
National Category
Energy Engineering
Research subject
Sustainable Urban Development
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-45834 (URN)10.1080/23744731.2024.2407723 (DOI)001331028100001 ()2-s2.0-85206375897 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2024-10-14 Created: 2024-10-14 Last updated: 2025-01-07Bibliographically approved

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