Flood risk analysis in the Pungwe river basin: Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of the march 2019 flood event using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS
2024 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
The Pungwe basin is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events, exacerbated by climate change, heightening the risk of severe flooding and imposing significant socio-economic burdens. In 2019, Cyclone Idai brought intense rainfall, exceeding 200 mm within 24 hours, causing devastating floods across the basin. To address the challenge of accurately simulating and managing such flood events, this study combined the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), and satellite-based tools from Google Earth Engine (GEE) to model the March 14–15, 2019, flood event in the Pungwe Basin. The HEC-HMS model simulated water discharge rates of approximately 5567 m³/s for the upstream Pungwe river, 1426 m³/s for the Metuchira tributary, and 983 m³/s for the Muda river, which were then used as inputs for hydraulic modelling. Google Earth Engine generated flood maps that helped calibrate the HEC-RAS model. The HEC-RAS simulation showed a water level of 8.75 m at station E67, based on a water depth of 4.88 m and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) elevation of 3.87 m. Although lower than the peak of 10 m recorded during the 2019 floods, the 8.75 m level still exceeded the 6 m alert threshold by 2.75 m, indicating significant flood risk. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements confirmed similar depth variations across the river cross-section. While there were some discrepancies between the HEC-RAS simulations and satellite-derived flood maps, the model closely aligned with the Pungwe River Early Warning System's alert levels. The study highlights the importance of real-time monitoring and high-resolution local data for improving flood risk assessments and management strategies. Collaboration among stakeholders will be crucial for implementing more effective measures to reduce the socio-economic impacts of flooding in the region.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. , p. iv+84+appendixes
Keywords [en]
HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, GIS, hydrological modelling, hydraulic modelling, Flood, Pungwe basin
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-46218OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-46218DiVA, id: diva2:1923241
Subject / course
Geospatial information science
Educational program
Master Programme in Geospatial Information Science
Supervisors
Examiners
2024-12-222024-12-202025-10-02Bibliographically approved