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En analys av inramningsbias i säkerhetskritiskt beslutsfattande under osäkerhet
University of Gävle, Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development, Department of Computer and Geospatial Sciences, Decision, Risk and Policy Analysis.
2026 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Beslutsfattande under osäkerhet är vanligt i säkerhetskritiska miljöer, där felaktiga beslut kan få allvarliga konsekvenser. Studien undersöker hur litteraturen beskriver påverkan av inramningsbiaser, inklusive ämnesinramning (issue framing) och snäv inramning (narrow framing), på beslutsfattande i sådana sammanhang, samt hur utformningen av beslutsstöd kan öka eller minska risken för sådan påverkan. Studien genomfördes som en systematisk litteraturöversikt, kompletterad med en analys av ett etablerat beslutsstöd, Joint Decision Model (JDM). Tio studier inkluderades genom en kombination av utforskande och systematiska litteratursökningar. Översikten visar att psykologiska biaser är väl studerade i experimentella miljöer, medan empiriska studier som kopplar dessa effekter till operativa beslutsstödsystem är begränsade. Sammantaget visar de granskade studierna att psykologiska biaser påverkar hur beslutsfattare tolkar information, uppfattar beslutsproblem och väljer handlingsalternativ, särskilt under osäkerhet och hög komplexitet. Analysen indikerar att språket i JDM delvis kan forma den tidiga problemformuleringen, samt att explicita strukturer för rivaliserande hypoteser och signaler för omprövning saknas. Modellen säkerställer därmed inte parallella tolkningar, även om sådana kan utvecklas genom erfarenhet och samarbete utanför den formella strukturen för beslutsstödet. Vidare är valet av informationspresentationsformat oreglerat, vilket kan förstärka inramningseffekter. Studien bidrar genom att belysa hur språk, struktur och presentationsval i beslutsstöd kan forma uppfattningen av beslutsproblem i säkerhetskritiska sammanhang samt genom att identifiera begränsningar i forskningen kring hur specifika utformningsaspekter kan påverka beslutsfattande under osäkerhet.

Abstract [en]

Decision-making under uncertainty is common in safety-critical environments, where erroneous decisions may have serious consequences. This study examines how the literature describes the influence of framing biases, including issue framing and narrow framing, on decision-making in such contexts, and how the design of decision support systems may increase or reduce the risk of such influence. The study was conducted as a systematic literature review, complemented by an analysis of an established decision support model, the Joint Decision Model (JDM). Ten studies were included through a combination of exploratory and systematic search strategies. The review shows that psychological biases are well studied in experimental settings, while empirical studies linking these effects to operational decision support systems remain limited. Overall, the reviewed studies indicate that psychological biases influence how decision-makers interpret information, perceive decision problems, and select courses of action, particularly under conditions of uncertainty and high complexity. The analysis suggests that the language used in the JDM may partially shape early problem formulation, and that explicit structures for rival hypotheses and signals for reassessment are lacking. The model therefore does not ensure parallel interpretations, although such interpretations may develop through experience and collaboration outside the formal structure of the decision support model. Furthermore, the choice of information presentation format is unregulated, which may reinforce framing effects. The study contributes by highlighting how language, structure, and presentation choices in decision support systems can shape the perception of decision problems in safety-critical contexts, and by identifying research limitations concerning how specific design features may influence decision-making under uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. , p. 65
Keywords [en]
Decision-making under uncertainty, safety-critical environments, framing bias, issue framing, narrow framing, decision support systems, Joint Decision Model (JDM), cognitive biases
Keywords [sv]
Beslutsfattande under osäkerhet, säkerhetskritiska miljöer, inramningsbias, ämnesinramning, snäv inramning, beslutsstöd, Joint Decision Model (JDM), kognitiva bias
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-49460OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-49460DiVA, id: diva2:2042346
Subject / course
Decision, risk and policy analysis
Educational program
Decision, risk och policy analysis - master’s programme (one year)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2026-02-27 Created: 2026-02-27 Last updated: 2026-02-27Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard-cite-them-right
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  • sv-SE
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Output format
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